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Significant Rainfall Expected During the Next Seven Days

Enjoy the sunshine, it will be disappearing soon.

So how do you like spring time in the middle of winter? Not much fun in my book, but it is what it is, so we might as well make the best of it. Even though we haven't had snow here, it's still better than last winter. 

Starting tomorrow, the rain will be returning to our area and much of the southeast as one system after the other begins their journey across the US. Enjoy the weekend's nice spring like weather, because by late Sunday the next system is advancing toward the southeast and bringing lots of rain with it.  We are possibly looking at 2-5" of rainfall over the next seven days, which would go a long way toward reducing the drought here in Georgia. Currently, 12 percent of the state is in an Exceptional drought (D4) while 44 percent is in an Extreme drought (D3). Most areas of Georgia "only" need around 3-9" of rainfall to break the drought, and this period of rainfall should go a long way toward reducing the persistent drought that has been hanging on for almost a year. The recent rains have left the soils in the northern 1/3 of Georgia very saturated, so one thing we'll have to keep an eye on is our Flash Flood Guidance for excessive rainfall and runoff. Due to the already saturated soils, much of the rain that will fall will runoff into our creeks, streams, and rivers and potentially cause some flash flooding issues for some people. with the rain, we won't be seeing much sunshine next week due to a southwest upper level flow that will bring a steady stream of clouds and moisture our way. 

Things appear to get interesting toward the end of next week as the Euro tries to develop a cut-off low in the southwest corner of the country. Right now the GFS hasn't caught on so we'll have to wait to see how this plays out. Cut-off lows are how we get our best snows here in Atlanta, and this is the time of year that they pick up, so this will be a very interesting system to watch. 

Robert Gamble, the meteorologist at WXSouth, had the following to say about this winter so far:

"There’s simply no denying that we have been living in some incredibly warm times over the last 24 months or so here in the United States.   But remember weather comes and goes in cycles, and I’m not going to attribute anything cold or warm, storm or lack of, to Global Warming …that’s another story.  Remember we are also coming off of back-to-back cold Winters overall, very cold ones…recall the Winters of 2009/10 and 2010/11?   BRRRRRR.   Needless to say, the atmosphere has flipped and done the exact opposite right after that last cold Winter, and we've been roasting at record levels ever since, save a slightly below month here or there.  But only here in the lower 48 states is this the case…when you look around the Northern Hemisphere over the last 3 Winters now, all three have been stone cold in central (sometimes western ) Europe, Asia and Russia. The last 2 Winters now also include very cold for most of Canada and Alaska.  So that leaves the lower 48 states as the only remaining really “hot spot”. For most of northern China, Russia and central Europe, these 2 back to back Winters now fall into the extreme category.  This makes sense, since it’s unlikely that the entire Northern Hemisphere can be all cold.  Nature works in balance, and since those areas are extremely cold relative to their normal's, most likely some region will have to counterbalance that, and in this case, the lower 48 states is doing the job.  We are the ones still having the extremely warm weather, but that has eased some recently." 

This hasn't exactly been the easiest winter to forecast due to things not occurring exactly as they have been predicted. I know you probably think I'm crazy when I show you all the maps and charts and tell you cold air is coming and... nothing. It really isn't me, I promise. All the meteorologist have had the same issue, the models have really been off in their accuracy this winter. Robert had this to say about how the teleconnection indices have done (or how they HAVEN'T done) this winter.

"So far, the indices such as AO and NAO and PDO haven’t been exactly lining up with what’s actually occurring, at least here in the eastern and southeastern US so far this Winter.  It’s been an extremely unusual case, especially considering how often and how strong the negative AO has been at times. Recall the study I have on negative AO periods and how almost always, when there is a 3 month negative consecutive period, vast regions of the Southeast from MS/AL/TN/NorthGA/SC/NC/VA/KY end up with above average snowfall. So far, this hasn’t happened.  As it turns out, this is one of those rare instances where the negative AO has been working with a very strong negative PDO to send almost all the cold air to the other side of the globe. However, a trough has remained put in Canada, and recently enough cold has come into the Plains and Northeast to mute the above normal temp effects. Usually, a negative AO is accompanied many times with negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) but in this season’s case, all the neg. NAO periods have been more east based, not west based.  All of the blocks this Winter have occurred in northern and eastern Greenland, not southern Greenland and eastern Canada/Baffin Island.  This combined with a -PDO regime has fought off any sustained cold in the central to eastern US, and especially so for the Southeast."

So as you can see, it's been a very trying winter for weather forecast. I would tell you the models are showing colder than normal for the 2nd half of February, but if you are like me, I'll believe it when I see it. 

The new State of The Climate for 2012 has been released, if you're reading this you can get a preview of my next blog post herebut here is a very brief summary.

"In 2012, the contiguous United States (CONUS) average annual temperature of 55.3°F was 3.2°F above the 20th century average, and was the warmest year in the 1895-2012 period of record for the nation. The 2012 annual temperature was 1.0°F warmer than the previous record warm year of 1998. Since 1895, the CONUS has observed a long-term temperature increase of about 0.13°F per decade. Precipitation averaged across the CONUS in 2012 was 26.57 inches, which is 2.57 inches below the 20th century average. Precipitation totals in 2012 ranked as the 15th driest year on record. Over the 118-year period of record, precipitation across the CONUS has increased at a rate of about 0.16 inch per decade."

Finally, just a plug for my friend Robert Gamble. Robert has got to be one of the finest and most knowledgeable meteorologist for southeast weather anywhere. I use his guidance a lot and I always trust his expertise for our area. If you have any need for weather related information for, business, insurance claims, or just for personal information, Robert is the person to talk to. 

"WxSouth Commercial saves your company money. We arm you with the data you need to make sound business decisions. With our expert short and long range outlooks, your commerce will be prepared, which could help you minimize loss and protect assets. We also provide specific data on natural events that could have an impact on your industry." Please visit http://www.wxsouth.com for more information.

Please remember, whenever you need weather information, please visit us at the new and improved DaculaWeather.com. You can also get the latest weather information by following us on Twitter and Facebook 
DaculaWeather.com... Your Window to the Weather

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

Tommy Hunter February 11, 2013 at 03:48 AM
Wow, another underachiever. We're gonna be hard-pressed to get an inch. If these weather dudes (not you Steve, the media types) don't quit crying wolf somebody is going to really end up getting hurt. Folks just ain't going to listen to them any more.
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 10:54 AM
I've had 1.55" in the last 24 hours plus .6" on Friday for 2.15" so far. I still think that by Wednesday I'll have around 3 - 4" total. Wouldn't be too bad to a week in the winter! I still see some very cold temperatures on the way Tommy, don't plant that garden yet! :-)
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 11:27 AM
I should read what I type BEFORE hitting submit. <sigh> I'm really starting to like this page: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_edd.php It took me a while to get it setup like I wanted it but after using it all weekend, I'm impressed. Once you have it like you like it, you can save the settings. The left side bar collapses also. I changed the map type to National, I turn on "radar", "Observations", and "upper air". Right now I have "Rivers" turned on to watch for flooding. It auto updates and the hourglass at the top allows you to specify the update period.
Tommy Hunter February 11, 2013 at 03:55 PM
0.65" since yesterday.
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 04:02 PM
Lots of rain moving in shortly, looks like possibly a "most of the day" kind of rainfall.
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 04:19 PM
Latest model runs just in show snow for Atlanta this weekend. We'll see if the can get more consistency as the week goes on.
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 04:22 PM
I haven't seem them but from someone that has... "This gonna be a tough one...in GA from ATL south probably an inch to two inches....most of NC 1-3 and VA probably 3 - 6""
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 06:06 PM
New Flood Watch just issued: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A * FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CEDARTOWN TO ALPHARETTA TO ATHENS LINE. * THROUGH 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON * MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND MOST OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON... BETWEEN ONE AND THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. * RECENT RAINFALL HAS MADE THE SOIL VERY MOIST... AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ALONG RIVERS... SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. ALSO... STORM DRAINS AND DITCHES MAY BECOME CLOGGED... CAUSING ADDITIONAL STREET FLOODING... ESPECIALLY ALONG LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
Kristi Reed (Editor) February 11, 2013 at 08:05 PM
I emptied my gauge before the rain started yesterday and am showing just over 2.5" so far (at 3 p.m. on Feb. 11).
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 09:27 PM
You GO girl!! That's really good. As of 4:25pm I've had this: Fri - 0.58" Sat - 0.01" Sun - 0.00" Mon - 1.32" Tue - 0.49" ========= 2.40"
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 09:30 PM
Tommy has a "Rain Triangle", similar to the "Bermuda Triangle", over his house I think. The rain falls but it mysteriously disappears before reaching his gauge. And of course we all have a "Snow Triangle" over us. ;-)
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 09:41 PM
It's funny, you hear some meteorologist talking up the possibility of snow for us this weekend, and others poo pooing the idea. Meteorologist Ryan Maue was Tweeting today about how much of the southeast could see some snow: "...actually Atlanta, Macon and most SE has decent** chance of seeing snow Sunday" Ryan is no fly by night meteorologist, and is well respected by his peers. You can view some of Ryan's stuff here: http://models.weatherbell.com/ Atlanta NWS said this in the latest AFD: ... AND ONLY WARRANTS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR MAINLY NORTH GA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY TIMING OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVAL WITH DEPARTING MOISTURE. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH GA...BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM... A COLD DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN AND BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. All eyes are on the models for the next few days, watching to see how this system will evolve. This will probably be one of the better chances that we've had all winter, so think positive...!
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 10:18 PM
Might be time for a new blog post. The 18Z GFS runs are in ... we might have a snowstorm on our hands! More to come...
Kristi Reed (Editor) February 11, 2013 at 10:44 PM
No Steve. Just plain no.
Tommy Hunter February 11, 2013 at 10:47 PM
Nope, it is up to 1". I'm not counting Friday's totals--just Yesterday and today. By the way, Steve, how'd you get 0.49" on Tuesday when it's only Monday?? You will see, if you watch loops, I-85 always seems to be the boundary. Right now it's raining good in L'ville and Dacula, but nothing here. Yesterday it was the southern boundary, today the northern.
Tommy Hunter February 11, 2013 at 10:50 PM
Guess who is right on, or just north, of that Alpharetta to Athens boundary??? At least the farm is south of it--where I need the rain the worst, actually. Well still dry.
Tommy Hunter February 11, 2013 at 10:51 PM
Cold chasing the moisture NEVER works for north Georgia. Don't get excited.
Tommy Hunter February 11, 2013 at 10:52 PM
By the way Steve, I really enjoy your blogs. Thanks for taking the time!
Sharon Swanepoel February 11, 2013 at 10:54 PM
Snow Storm - is this another of those weekend scares coming up Steve?
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 11:16 PM
Tommy, you are very welcome, thanks for taking the time to read them. I never really know who or how many people read them, so whenever I hear from someone, both from here and from visitors to my website, it's always greatly appreciated.
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 11:19 PM
I about cracked up when I saw this. This is the 18Z GFS snow depth. Keep in mind, this map hasn't been changed... notice the little hole over north Georgia... that's Gwinnett and Walton county. I told you we were in the "Snow Triangle"! :-) http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/snow_hole.gif
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 11:20 PM
Awwww, c'mon Kristi. One snow, please? This is no lock now anyway, it may be days before we find out what really may happen. But it's nice to dream!
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 11:49 PM
I'm feeling a little warm and fuzzy about this one. Still days to go and things could change so nothing in the bank right now. But the possibility is increasing...
North Georgia Weather February 11, 2013 at 11:53 PM
LOL!!!! I guess I have no idea what day it is!!! LOL!!! Here is what I've gotten, I should have just provided a link... although I probably would have typed that wrong too! :-) http://www.daculaweather.com/4_dacula_noaa.php Copy... paste... is my friend.
Charles Welch February 11, 2013 at 11:57 PM
Haha yeh i guess somehow the moisture is just gonna disappear and then magically reappear around that area. Or maybe instead of nothing there, maybe that's ground zero for 30" LOL. It's just that white
North Georgia Weather February 12, 2013 at 01:08 AM
If anyone hasn't seen a panel of ensemble members... Both the GFS and Euro models run with slight variations to their input to create what if scenarios. This page shows 12 different solutions to the upcoming system. Meteorologist Allan Hoffman pointed out that 3 are non-events, but quite a few of the others ones are big events. These charts depict 850 mg temps (~5000ft) as well as 6 hour precip. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf132.html
North Georgia Weather February 12, 2013 at 01:15 AM
WARNING... :-) If you want to see the 18Z run of the 12 GFS ensemble scenarios for snow accumulation... click on this link. Each individual image also opens up to a large size. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zsnowf144.html I'm sorry, for these images and the link in the previous comment, go to about hour 130 - 150
North Georgia Weather February 12, 2013 at 01:28 AM
Comment from a little while ago... "This will probably be our best chance of the season for a larger scale event. Funny how Friday night everyone was excited about the 0z's, then over the weekend we were all worried about the cold and lack of moisture. Now it would appear we may have a surface wave developing and riding up the arctic front. Cold seems like an almost lock at this point, storm not so much. Scenarios where we are dependent on a phase always show the greatest variability in solutions. One could argue against this point, but we are going to have to rely on energy phasing into the trough as it moves east, like the GFS is showing around 114 over IA/IL, this sharpens and tilts it. Pin pointing where and if this takes place at 5 days out is impossible, hence varying solutions from the Apps to half way to Bermuda."
wendy ray February 13, 2013 at 01:09 AM
We can complain bout the rain..or welcome it. But no matter what we think we need weather wise..we are only going to get what God wants us to have. So why complain,it does no good.gods in control.
North Georgia Weather February 13, 2013 at 08:27 PM
With the rain moving out to the northeast, my final rainfall total is 2.88". Not as much as I wanted but no one asked me anyway! :-) Rainfall over central and south Georgia have really put a dent in the drought in that area, here is a 72 hour and a 7 day precipitation map for Georgia: http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/ffc72.gif http://www.daculaweather.com/images/2013_02/Wed_7day_se.gif

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