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Rain Likely Over Easter Weekend

Not the best of weather for the Easter weekend.

The upcoming Easter weekend weather forecast may not be a forecast that you would like to hear, as the rain returns to mess up your holiday plans after three days of drying out and warming up.

A stubborn upper level low over the northeast continues to spin impulse after impulse around the southern base of its trough. Those impulses will continue into Monday as a front stalls over the north central part of the state. Several rounds of heavy rain may occur over the extended period, and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) said this about the upcoming period this morning:

AREAS FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHEAST MAY SEE A COUPLE EPISODES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL... ONE DURING THE WEEKEND IN A CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY THAT MAY START LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD... AND ANOTHER BY TUE-WED AS HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT APPROACH THE PLAINS.

And if you think the cool weather is over (or think it should be!), the WPC said this about next week:

AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM RECENT CHILLY CONDITIONS... THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES.

There are signs that this below normal temperature pattern may last into the first or second week of April before we see a rapid warmup. Our high at DaculaWeather.com of 42.3F yesterday (Tuesday) put us almost 25º below our normal high of 67ºF. Yesterday's high at Atlanta was only 42ºF and that is 3º colder than any high this past January and colder than any high for this past winter period! The only ones as cold or colder were on 3/2-3. Also, 3/25/13's mean temperature departure for Atlanta was -17º, which was the coldest departure since 01/12/2011! The 03/26/13 mean departure of -20º was the coldest since the -22º of 12/14/10! 

Our monthly average temperatures from this winter and a few previous years:


2012/2013 2011/2012 2010/2011 2009/2010 Dec 47.9º 48.1º 35.5º 39.8º Jan 47.4º 46.1º 37.8º 36.5º Feb 43.5º 48.8º 47.0º 37.2º Mar 45.6º 61.9º 53.3º 48.9º

 

As you can see, the last two months of this winter were the coldest months for us, but look at the difference between last March and this one so far. 

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DaculaWeather.com... Your Window to the Weather

This post is contributed by a community member. The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Patch Media Corporation. Everyone is welcome to submit a post to Patch. If you'd like to post a blog, go here to get started.

North Georgia Weather March 27, 2013 at 06:28 PM
The pollen count last week on Sunday and Monday was 358 and 238 respectively, which was in the high range. By the next day it had fallen to 25 and has remained very low through the much cooler weather we've had around for the last week. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_pollen_count.php
North Georgia Weather March 27, 2013 at 09:46 PM
Still a large part of the country with snowfall. If you take a look on this page, you'll notice that the snow cover for this winter was above both the short term and long term averages. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_snow_reanalysis.php
Mr. B March 27, 2013 at 09:58 PM
Just where is Al Gore when you need to slap him in the head with an icicle?
North Georgia Weather March 28, 2013 at 09:20 AM
In this mornings WPC Extended Forecast, it appears that the strong high pressure that will dive in behind the rain and the cold front, may dip further south than originally anticipated. This would mean much cooler temps again beginning around the middle of the week. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php FARTHER EASTWARD THE WEAKENING TREND WITH THE WESTERN SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR A FARTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE AND THEN SUPPRESSION OF LEADING FRONTAL WAVINESS ALONG/S OF THE GULF COAST IN THE EARLY/MID PART OF NEXT WEEK... WITH ASSOCIATED CHANGES IN TEMPS/PRECIPITATION AS WELL. THESE ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER APPEAR TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS. CENTRAL-EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE A RETURN OF BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING ONE OR MORE DAYS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS OF AT LEAST 10-20 F BELOW NORMAL.
North Georgia Weather March 28, 2013 at 10:20 AM
He's living fat, dumb, and happy off of the sell of his TV channel. ;-)
HubbPlumbingSnellville March 28, 2013 at 04:24 PM
Oh boy there is gonna be some soggy chocolate on Sunday.
North Georgia Weather March 28, 2013 at 04:34 PM
Certainly won't be a great day for outdoor Easter egg hunting!
John B March 28, 2013 at 04:48 PM
ahhh...rain should never ruin it for the little ones. We use plastic eggs filled with all types of chocolates and goodies...yup the kids get wet but the treats stay dry...trust me, the kids don't mind the rain!
North Georgia Weather March 29, 2013 at 12:05 PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 740 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_ffc.php .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... GA CONTINUES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAVE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY. GFS/NAM DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE ...WITH GFS BRINGING HIGHER POPS THAN NAM. SO AGAIN HAVE COMPROMISED AND GIVEN LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DIMINISHED POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A LULL OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CWA. HAVE SHOWN INCREASING POPS ON SATURDAY BUT BEST DYNAMICS TIMED BEYOND THE SHORT TERM INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
North Georgia Weather March 30, 2013 at 12:59 AM
MARCH APPEARS ON TRACK TO BE THE COOLEST MARCH SINCE 1971. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH AT ATL THUS FAR IS 47.9 DEG F...WHICH IF THE MONTH ENDED TODAY WOULD BE THE 16TH COOLEST MARCH SINCE 1879. INTERESTINGLY...MARCH 2013 WILL BE COOLER THAN BOTH DECEMBER 2012 AND JANUARY 2013 WHICH HAS NOT HAPPENED (MARCH BEING COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DEC AND JAN) SINCE 1947. HERE ARE THE NUMBERS THUS FAR AT THE 4 CLIMATE SITES THROUGH 28 DAYS OF MARCH: SITE....AVG TEMP.....RANK (COOLEST) ATL 47.9 16 MCN 49.6 6 CSG 52.7 8 AHN 48.0 11
North Georgia Weather March 30, 2013 at 09:54 AM
From Mr. Sutherland last night: "In large part, the revival of winter and then its long-duration in parts of North America was the result of a blocking regime that has now lasted 52 days. That exceptional blocking regime brought the AO below -5.000 for the first time on record after mid-March. Moreover, through today, the AO has averaged -3.173 for March and a figure below -3.000 is extremely likely when the month ends in two more days. That will surpass the current March record of -2.858 from 1958. Since 1950, there have been only two years during which the March AO averaged -2.500 (1958 and 1962) or lower and only 5 on which it averaged -2.000 or lower (1957, 1958, 1962, 1970, and 1984). The general consensus of the pattern evolution from those years is that April witnessed a break in the cold pattern, with most of those years favoring warmer readings for the second half of the month in large parts where cool anomalies had begun the month. All said, that pattern evolution supports the idea coming out in the teleconnection analogs of a dramatic pattern change that will likely see the second half of April wind up warmer than normal in much of the area currently enjoying generally colder than normal readings. It appears that the second week of April could witness the start of that transition."
R++ One of the Famous Dacula Crew March 30, 2013 at 09:50 PM
So in short, we should all pay our taxes and prepare to go thru Hotter than He!! Or the animator had a heart attack and we'll therefore jump directly from Winter into Summer, essentially bypassing Spring? All depending on the airspeed of an unladen swallow...

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